IPRI Team

Anu Maria Joseph and Shamini Velayutham

Sudan: Seven months into the conflict
Anu Maria Joseph

In the news
On 8 November, Reuters reported on the increasing number of people fleeing to Chad from the state of West Darfur following a fresh wave of violence. According to Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), nearly seven thousand people have crossed the Chad border in three days. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) referred to an “unimaginable” humanitarian crisis unfolding in Sudan. Earlier, on 4 November, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took control of the army headquarters in El Geneina in West Darfur.

On 7 November, BBC quoted the residents of Ardamata, a district in El Geneina which hosts a camp for Internally Displaced People (IDPs), where at least 800 people have been killed in an attack by RSF and its allied militias. Meanwhile, on the same day, Reuters reported on RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) agreeing to easing humanitarian aid deliveries and implementing confidence-building measures following the peace meditations that began on 2 November in Jeddah. The talks were mediated by Saudi Arabia and the US.

On 3 November, the Deputy Commander of RSF, Abdel Rahim Hamdan Dagalo, stated that the military group would continue the fighting until they captured all of Sudan. He said: “We will move towards other remaining states and [army] headquarters, and they will be under our control, God willing.”

Issues at large
First, seven months of the conflict and rapid escalation. The conflict in Sudan between the SAF and RSF will complete its seventh month on 14 November. According to the UN, the conflict has killed more than 9,000 people. It has evolved into ethnic violence in Darfur and Kordofan regions. RSF and its allied Arab militias have been accused of carrying out ethnic cleansing in the state of West Darfur, in particular against the Masalit community. Peace talks have failed to reach a ceasefire. The fighting continues between the two military leaders- SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader General Hamdan Dagalo- struggling for power-. From the capital Khartoum, cities of Omdurman and Bahri to the peripheral regions of Blue Nile, Darfur and Kordofan, the conflict has intensified in terms of intensity and geography. The fighting has also reached the city of Port Sudan, where the SAF is trying to build a parallel government. 

Second, RSF’s agenda and its progress. With the seizing of el-Geneina in the state of West Darfur, the RSF has taken control of the states of South, West, and Central Darfur. According to Al Jazeera, RSF has encircled the state of North Darfur aiming to capture the capital city al-Fashir. The paramilitary group carried out the advancements in two weeks. The city of Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, was captured on 26 October. Besides Darfur, the group have a major hand in Khartoum and its twin cities of Omdurman and Bahri, and parts of the state of West Kordofan. The group is seeking an alliance with Arab militias across Sudan to reach its bid to capture the entire Sudan.

Third, surging violence. RSF and its allied militias are being accused of carrying out ethnic cleansing of non-Arabs in Darfur states. RSF, a loosely organised paramilitary force, is unable to control its forces. Besides, RSF has left the administration of captured regions with respective ethnic leaders. Its Arab allies have looted cities and towns across the conflict-hit regions. According to the UN Human Rights Office (OCHR), at least 20 women were held in “slaves-like conditions” by RSF-linked militias in Darfur. Previously, the UN reported on 50 cases of sexual violence including gang rapes in Darfur. According to the UN, nearly six million people have fled to neighbouring countries of Chad, Sudan and the Central African Republic since the conflict began. 

Fourth, the failure of ceasefires and mediations. The new developments come alongside the peace talks in Jeddah led by the US and Saudi Arabia; however, it failed. The failed peace efforts come after a series of nine failed ceasefires mediated by several regional and international actors. A long-lasting ceasefire in Sudan seems elusive. The previous ceasefires failed as the warring sides showed no commitment to compliance. They continue to accuse each other of violating the ceasefires. Although external actors can bring the warring parties to the negotiating table, implementing those efforts remains challenging. 

In perspective
First, as the conflict reaches its seventh month with a higher intensity, it is unclear whether the SAF has lost the fighting. However, the RSF's rapid advancements say it is likely that the conflict and the violence will escalate. Subsequently, Sudan will be left to the hands of another military leadership under Hamdan Dagalo. RSF, a remnant of the Janjaweed militia under the Omar al Bashir regime, is historically known for its human rights atrocities in Darfur during the 2003 war. RSF’s alignment with Arab militias and targeted atrocities on non-Arab communities is concerning. RSF is not institutionally equipped to govern regions. The captured regions which RSF left to Arab ethnic leaders will eventually become the ground for ethnic rivalries and instability. RSF in control of Darfur would imply that Darfur would be subjected to widespread human rights atrocities. Darfur will be in chaos.

Second, RSF's new bid to capture the entire Sudan is concerning. It would mean that negotiating grounds for a ceasefire won't be easy. The disorganised structure of RSF and its allies, and the evolution of conflict into multiple dimensions, make it difficult to study the conflict on the ground. Regional and international efforts are failures; so are the longevity of the ceasefires. It seems the structural issues within a short-term ceasefire encourage the warring sides to violate the ceasefire easily, to gain the upper hand. Unsuccessful attempts by international and regional actors highlight the need to revisit the mediating approach to the conflict in Sudan.

Pakistan: Repatriation of illegal immigrants 
Shamini Velayutham

In the news
On 1 November, following the expiration of the deadline for the voluntary departure of illegal migrants, the Pakistani government launched a state-wide campaign to deport undocumented migrants, the majority of whom are Afghans. Pakistan’s Minister of Interior clarified that the expulsion of illegal foreign nationals would be carried out in phases with people without travel documents deported in the first phase. The government issued an order to all unauthorised immigrants earlier in October, stating that failure to depart Pakistan by 31 October would result in imprisonment and deportation to their home countries. According to the government, among the nearly four million Afghans who reside in Pakistan, 1.7 million Afghans are undocumented. 

On 6 November, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) reported that the Ahmadiyya and Afghan refugee groups in Pakistan are reportedly the target of increased detentions, acts of violence and intimidation. USCIRF Commissioner David Curry stated: "We are particularly concerned that the Pakistani government may forcibly return to Afghanistan religious minorities who fled persecution." 

On the same day, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OCHR) urged the Pakistani authorities to halt deportations to prevent a human rights crisis. OCHR spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani stated: "We believe many of those facing deportation will be at grave risk of human rights violations if returned to Afghanistan, including arbitrary arrest and detention, torture, cruel and other inhuman treatment”.

On 31 October, Pakistan's Minister of Interior, Sarfraz Bugti, stated that if these foreign nationals do not agree to leave the country, the government will begin expelling them gradually. He added: "After November 1, the state will commence its operation to expel aliens in phases.” 

Issues at large
First, the state of Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Thousands of Afghans fled to Pakistan in the late 1970s and early 1980s following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In the late 1990s, the UNHCR estimated that 1.2 million Afghans were living in Pakistani refugee villages. The recent UNHCR report states that over 1.3 million Afghans have arrived in Pakistan since August 2021. Over the years, the number of refugees who fled Afghanistan to Pakistan has increased. Fearing arrest and deportation, thousands of Afghans have already fled Pakistan. According to the USCIRF, Pakistani authorities have allegedly carried out raids and set up deportation centres to assist the repatriation process. 

Second, worsening Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. Since the establishment of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, there has been an increase in the number of Afghans crossing the border illegally. The Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) sanctuaries across the border have put Pakistan and Afghanistan's relationship in jeopardy. For instance, the most recent suicide attack on 1 September 2023 by a TTP militant killed nine Pakistani soldiers in the district of Bannu, in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to Pakistani authorities, 24 suicide bombings occurred in Pakistan in 2023, among which 14 were carried out by Afghan nationals. Regardless, the Taliban government has criticised the Pakistan government’s decision to deport Afghan refugees as “unacceptable,” thereby exacerbating the tensions between the countries. 

Third, the humanitarian crisis. Ever since the Pakistani government issued an ultimatum to illegal migrants to leave the country, a significant rise in humanitarian violations has been reported by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW). According to Pakistani officials, over 800 houses of illegal migrants were demolished in Islamabad. Subsequently, 52,000 illegal residents have been identified and mapped in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Minors have been deported to Afghanistan without the supervision of their parents. Besides, Afghan refugees in detention centres continue to face hunger and sanitation issues due to the surplus population. According to the UNHCR, around 200,000 people among the 1.3 million who are being forced to flee Pakistan would face significant security challenges upon their forced return. 

In perspective
First, the likely trajectory of the Afghan refugees leaving Pakistan. Several variables including changes in foreign policy, geopolitical developments, and the state of affairs in Afghanistan are likely to affect the condition of Afghan refugees who are fleeing Pakistan. The future of these refugees would be influenced by the developments in the diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan and the approach of the international actors. 

Second, the Taliban’s stance on deportation. Afghanistan has faced several challenges following the US troops’ withdrawal in 2021 which have worsened after the unsettling political circumstances post the August 2021 Taliban takeover along with natural disasters including floods in 2022 and earthquakes in 2023. The likelihood of accommodating the resettling refugees is exacerbated by the presence of over a million IDPs.  The sudden deportation of refugees from Pakistan is burdensome to them. Afghanistan is displeased with Pakistan’s ultimatum on deportation. The Taliban’s response will depend on how deportations are carried out and the degree of international attention. Additionally, the Taliban’s aggression on the border can be anticipated until the safe exit of Afghan nationals from Pakistan. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Rishika Yadav, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, and Shamini Velayutham

East and Southeast Asia
China: Largest lender bank hit with ransomware attack
On 8 November, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) informed that their financial services were a victim of a ransomware attack disrupting the trade of the Treasurys. ICBC, a state-owned enterprise which according to Forbes is the world's largest lender and the third-largest bank, stated that it has “isolated impacted systems to contain the incident.” ICBC did not specify who the attacker was and stated that they had initiated an investigation. The US Treasury Department told the Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) media: “We are aware of the cybersecurity issue and are in regular contact with key financial sector participants, in addition to federal regulators. We continue to monitor the situation.” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Wang Wenbin added that the bank had handled the emergency well and was striving to minimise the impact. 

China: Beijing dissatisfied with G7 foreign ministers’ remarks 
On 8 November, the Chinese embassy in Japan expressed its displeasure with the China-related comments made at the G7 foreign ministers meeting. The meeting that was held in Tokyo jointly criticised China and urged the country to address its non-market policies. Additionally, they asked China to refrain from assisting Russia in its war in Ukraine, to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait and to give autonomy to Hong Kong. The embassy stated: “China will resolutely counter any smear campaigns from external forces.”

South Korea: High-level talks on North Korea’s nuclear program held with IAEA
On 8 November, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) held their 12th round of high-level policy talks. The Deputy Foreign Minister for multilateral and global affairs, Park Yong-min, met with the Deputy Director General of the IAEA, Massimo Aparo, in Seoul. The discussion focused on joint efforts to enhance readiness to verify North Korea’s nuclear program and increase cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The IAEA expressed concerns over North Korea’s continued nuclear activities in violation of UNSC resolutions. The ministry highlighted its peaceful use of nuclear energy contrasting with North Korea's illicit development of nuclear weapons and pre-emptive nuclear strike threats.

North Korea: Criticises US Minuteman III test, threatens “military counteraction”
On 3 November, North Korea condemned the US for testing a Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) vowing “military counteraction.” It described South Korean officials’ presence at the launch as an intention to use nuclear-capable weapons against North Korea. North Korean state media, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) stated: “The DPRK’s military counteraction stand to respond to the nukes in kind is immutable, irrespective of whether the US targets the DPRK with strategic nuclear weapons or deploys tactical nukes.” In response, the South Korean Ministry of Unification stressed: “We make it clear that the current escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula is caused by North Korea’s futile nuclear development and reckless military provocations.”

South Asia
Afghanistan: Half of the population lives in poverty, claims World Bank report
On 3 November, Tolo News quoted the World Bank’s monthly report, “Afghanistan Economic Monitor,” which stated that half of the Afghans are living in poverty. The report which was released on 31 October stated that from January to September 2023, there has been a decrease of 0.5 per cent in exports compared to the same period in 2022 while imports have shown a 27 per cent growth. An economist, Sayar Quirishi, commented: “One of the main reasons why Afghanistan's economy is in the current situation is that after the fall of the republic and the suspension of international aid, unfortunately, the economy has shrunk by 25% in the last two years”. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Economy urged the international community to remove sanctions imposed on the economic sector as it was essential for its progress. 

Afghanistan: Bus attack in Kabul targeting Shia Muslims
On 7 November, Al Jazeera reported on a bus attack targeting the Shia Hazara community that took place in the capital Kabul. The blast happened in the district of Dasht-e-Barchi which is a Hazara stronghold. At least seven people were killed and twenty others were wounded in the blast.  The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack. The group had claimed responsibility for a deadly explosion in a sports club in the same neighbourhood in late October. The current blast is thus the second targeting the oppressed community in recent weeks. Afghanistan has a population of about six million Shia Muslims of whom the majority are Hazaras who have been historically oppressed and discriminated against.

Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Iran: Demonstrations in Iran to mark the 1979 takeover of the US embassy
On 4 November, Al Jazeera reported that several demonstrations were held across Iran to mark the 1979 takeover of the US embassy and to protest against Israel and the US’s involvement in the bombardment of Gaza. The protestors also marked their support for Gaza by waving Palestinian flags. Chants of “death to America” and “death to Israel” and stomping of their flags characterized these marches. On 4 November 1979, the US embassy was stormed as part of the revolution that brought into existence the current theocratic regime in Iran.

Iran: Nobel Peace Prize winner begins hunger strike in Iranian prison
On 6 November, Al Jazeera reported that Narges Mohammadi who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October this year has begun a hunger strike in the Evin Prison where she is being held. She is protesting the limited access to medical care for her and other inmates and mandatory hijab for women in Iran. She has also refused to wear the hijab under any circumstance. In response, the prison authorities have refused to transfer her to a hospital for better treatment although she suffers from heart and lung conditions. Mohammadi is a veteran rights activist who was awarded the Nobel Prize for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran.

Syria: After weeks of attacks supported by Iran, the US bombs an Iranian site in eastern Syria
On 8 November, in response to the recent rocket and drone assaults by Iran-backed militias against US soldiers in Syria and Iraq, the US bombed a facility used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran-backed militias in the province of Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that this was in response to “a series of attacks against US persons in Iraq and Syria” and emphasised that they would “take all necessary measures to defend our people against those who are responsible for the attacks and will respond at a time and place of our choosing.” According to the Syrian-based Naher media, the attacks killed and injured at least ten Iranian and Iran-backed militants. Iran-backed militias in Iraq claimed shortly after the airstrike that they had fired two drones at the US military’s Harir airbase in northern Iraq.

Israel: IDF says Hamas transporting terrorists and arms in an ambulance
On 8 November, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) accused Hamas of transporting arms and terrorists through ambulances. In a video of an interrogation published by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and the IDF, a terrorist affiliated with Hamas revealed that the terrorist group has been exploiting mosques, schools, ambulances, clinics and hospitals for terrorist activities. The terrorist acknowledged that Hamas moves militants and weapons across the Gaza Strip in ambulances.

Israel: Gaza journalist and 42 families killed in Israeli airstrike
On 7 November, Al Jazeera reported that Palestinian journalist Mohammad Abu Hasira and 42 family members were murdered by an Israeli air strike near Gaza. On 6 November, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a group that advocates for press freedom, revealed statistics showing that at least 37 journalists have been killed by Israeli attacks since 7 October. Of the journalists CPJ tracked, four were Israelis, one was Lebanese and thirty-two were Palestinians.

Israel: Strikes on Gaza
On 7 November, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli attacks on Gaza’s Nasser Medical Complex resulted in at least eight Palestinian deaths. Israeli aircraft have not stopped targeting Gaza City's hospitals. The four institutions that make up the Nasser Medical Complex were attacked both directly and indirectly by Israeli missiles. Several Palestinians were injured in the strikes. On 5 November, Palestinian officials stated that Israeli military forces killed dozens from three refugee camps in Gaza including the Al-Maghazi camp. At least 47 civilians were killed during the attack at the Al-Maghazi. 

Horn of Africa: Flash floods in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia
On 8 November, BBC Africa reported that at least 29 people were killed in flash floods followed by heavy rains in Somalia. The Somali National Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) stated that at least 850,000 people were affected by the floods. The Somali government has declared an emergency in the states of Jubbaland, Hirshabelle South West and Galmudug. The flash floods were caused by the overflowing of the Juba and Shabelle rivers following heavy rains. Meanwhile, flash floods are also reported in neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia. On 6 November, BBC Africa reported that at least 15 people were killed in Kenya in flash floods. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) El Niño weather phenomenon is behind the heavy rains and is likely to continue until April 2024.

Ethiopia: Heavy fighting in Amhara
On 8 November, BBC Africa reported on heavy fighting in Laibela, a Unesco heritage site, in Ethiopia, between the federal forces and the Amhara regional militia, Fano. Meanwhile, the residents of the Amhara region reported drone strikes and indiscriminate shelling in the Gojjam, Shoa and Gondar regions of Amhara. The fighting broke out in August after the government directed to integrate regional forces into the federal forces. The Fano militia claim that the integration will threaten their local defence to other regional militias including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has accused the federal forces and Fano militia of committing human rights atrocities. The Ethiopian government denied the accusations describing it as “unbalanced.” According to EHRC, more than 3,000 people have fled the region since the beginning of the conflict. 

Uganda: The UK and the US issues security alert
On 8 November, the UK High Commission in Uganda issued a security alert citing the “growing terror threat in Uganda, including the targeting of foreigners.” Additionally, the US embassy in Uganda issued a similar security alert. Both countries advised their citizens not to attend larger gatherings including worship events. The UK government warned its citizens against visiting Semuliki National Park and Queen Elizabeth National Park. The development comes after a UK and South African couple were killed in an Allied Democratic Force (ADF) attack in September. ADF attacks in western Uganda have increased recently heightening the insecurity situation in the country. In June, at least 42 people were killed in an ADF attack in a school in western Uganda.

Cameroon: 20 people killed in separatist attack
On 6 November, BBC Africa reported that at least 20 people were killed in a separatist attack in the Manyu region of Cameroon. The militants injured several others and set ablaze many houses. Since 2017, Ambazonia Defense Forces (ADF) has been carrying out separatist movements in two Anglophone regions of Cameroon, Yaounde and Manyu, against the government. According to BBC, the conflict has left at least 6,000 people dead and thousands displaced.

Europe and the Americas 
Italy: Government signs deal with Albania to curb migrant entry
On 6 November, Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Meloni announced a deal between Italy and Albania on managing migrants. According to the deal, Italy will build two migrant centres in the northwest of Albania. Meloni stated: “Mass illegal immigration is a phenomenon no EU member state can handle alone.” During the 2022 election campaign, Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, pledged to curb “undocumented migrants” by building facilities outside the EU. However, this was unfulfilled due to the rising number of migrants annually. The deal with Albania will result in the construction of centres designed to contain up to 36,000 people in a year. On the same day Albania’s Prime Minister, Edi Rama, stated: “We may not have the strength and capacity to be the solution, but we have a duty towards Italy and the ability to lend a hand.”

Spain: Increase in violent protests against pardoning Catalan leaders
On 7 November, BBC reported on increasing violent protests in Spain against Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. According to the report, 7000 people protested the “investiture vote” that allowed Sanchez to prevent another general election and form a new government. Sanchez responded to the protests that “they will not break the Socialist Party.” The move came after the People’s Party failed to gain majority votes through its coalition parties to form a government. To form the government, Sanchez requires support from Catalonia (JxCat) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). These parties were accused of leading the independence movement in 2017 and were subject to legal action. To gain the support of the Catalan group, Sanchez needs to pardon the Catalan leaders from legal action.

Honduras: Ambassador to Israel recalled in light of “serious humanitarian situation”
On 3 November, Honduras recalled its ambassador to Israel while commending the Israeli-led genocide and violations of international law in the Gaza Strip. Honduras’ Foreign Affairs Minister, Eduardo Enrique Reina, claimed the decision over the “serious humanitarian situation the civilian population in Palestine is suffering in the Gaza Strip.” Honduras follows Bolivia, Chile and Colombia in recalling its ambassadors to Israel. Meanwhile, diplomatic relations with Israel are currently stable as Honduran diplomats and staff are still in the embassy.

Mexico: Rebel Zapatista movement to dissolve “autonomous” townships
On 6 November, the Zapatista indigenous rebel movement in south Mexico stated that it was dissolving the “autonomous municipalities” that it declared since its uprising in 1994. The rebellion was to get more Indigenous rights; by this, the group had established “autonomous” townships that rejected government aid programmes. Although the group has not given an official reason, the rising gang violence in south Mexico and the 2024 elections are potential reasons behind the decision. The group stated that they would “describe the reasons and processes” shortly and that administrative, health care and education community centres established by them would remain open to locals.

The US: Guided missile submarine dispatched to the Middle East to contain the ongoing conflict
On 5 November, the US military stated that it had dispatched a guided missile submarine to the Middle East amid fears of the Israel-Hamas conflict spreading to the rest of the region. The US CENTCOM issued an official statement: “On November 5, 2023, an Ohio-class submarine arrived in the US Central Command area of responsibility.” This follows Washington’s efforts to build up defence systems in the Middle East, which has included missile defence systems, the deployment of 1000 US soldiers and operations commandos for “advising” the Israeli military. Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder stated that the US has “been crystal clear that we do not want to see the situation in Israel widen into a broader regional conflict,” and that this build-up would warn countries against taking “advantage of this situation to widen the conflict.”  

The US: Protestors rally to stop vessel allegedly carrying US arms to Israel
On 6 November, hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters gathered at the Port of Tacoma to block a military supply vessel believed to be carrying arms from the US to Israel. The protest was organised by the advocacy group Arab Resource and Organising Center (AROC) which received a tip-off that the vessel would supply Israel with arms it needed to continue its military offensive in Gaza. An AROC coordinator, Wassim Hage, asserted that the protests demand “a ceasefire now” and a “real examination and action on US foreign policy and US funding to Israel.” Protesters carried Palestinian flags and signs that read “Defend Gaza” while they chanted “Not another nickel, not another dime, no more money for Israel’s crimes!” Bicycles and cars with blinking hazard lights were used by demonstrators to block traffic surrounding the port while seven Indigenous warriors used a ceremonial canoe to block the ship.

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Rishika Yadav, Dhriti Mukherjee and Shamini Velayutham are Research Assistants at NIAS. 

(The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of any institutions or organisations.)

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